Latest New Hampshire presidential poll (09/21/12): Mitt Romney takes the lead
Back in July the first poll results were out since Mitt Romney became the presumptive Republican nominee, and that poll had Mitt Romney trailing Barack Obama by four points at 49%-45%. However this poll showed him gaining ground on Barack Obama because in the April New Hampshire poll, before Romney became the presumptive nominee, Barack Obama led Mitt Romney by a 51%-42% margin.
And today the latest New Hampshire poll is out and it shows us that not only has Mitt Romney closed the gap on Barack Obama, he has pulled ahead of the president. Mitt Romney now holds a slim lead over Barack Obama by a 48%-45% margin. Still a statistical dead heat but good news for Mitt Romney.
In five months Mitt Romney has turned a nine point deficit into a three point lead and if my math is correct, that is a twelve point swing. Mitt Romney appears to have momentum in New Hampshire and while we are a small state with only four electoral votes in an election as close as this one is predicted to be these could be four very critical votes.
My gut instinct is this poll is closer to the truth than the previous ones, I base that on nothing but intuition. I believe Mitt Romney is going to win New Hampshire and if he does it may just hand him the victory in November. There is still plenty of time before the election but this is a good sign for Mitt Romney if he can build on the momentum he appears to have in the state.
Overall New Hampshire voters pride themselves on being independent thinkers and voters and I believe that Barack Obama’s “you didn’t build that” comment is coming back to haunt him in this state.