Latest New Hampshire presidential poll (10/12/12) shows a tight race
I didn’t write about the last New Hampshire poll which came out a couple of weeks ago because it didn’t seem credible. That poll showed Barack Obama suddenly leading Mitt Romney by fifteen points in what had otherwise been a fairly tight race.
I wasn’t the only person who had questions about this poll, most people in the state–on both sides of the aisle–didn’t think it was right. The aspect of that poll which made it so questionable was the gubernatorial result from the poll. While Barack Obama was said to have a fifteen point lead, Democrat candidate Maggie Hassan and Republican candidate Ovide Lamontagne were still locked in a dead heat.
Here is a little background: outgoing Governor John Lynch–a Democrat–is New Hampshire’s longest serving governor having served four terms. (It must be remembered that New Hampshire governors serve two year terms so in reality he served the equivalent of two terms in all other states with the exception of Vermont.) He still remains wildly popular with an approval rating of nearly 70% and he endorsed Maggie Hassan. Maggie Hassan has been running on the idea that she would continue Governor Lynch’s policies. It seems highly unlikely that Maggie Hassan would be in a dead heat with Ovide Lamontagne if she had the endorsement of Governor Lynch AND Barack Obama had such a big lead in the state.
So I will ignore the poll that showed Barack Obama ahead by fifteen points for now (more on it later) and compare the new results to the poll I wrote about here which was taken at the end of September.
There are actually two new polls out and both show a close race; one has Mitt Romney ahead by four points and the other has the two presidential hopefuls tied at 48%:
A new poll released today by the American Research Group showed Mitt Romney leading Obama, 50 to 46 percent in New Hampshire. The poll has a margin of error of 4 percent, meaning the poll shows the race in a virtual dead heat.
Earlier this week, a Rassmussen Reports poll showed the New Hampshire race truly tied, at 48 percent
Back in September Mitt Romney had a three point advantage at 48%-45% while now one poll shows Romney with a four point lead with Romney hitting the 50% mark and Obama dropping to 46%. The Rassmussen poll shows little change in the numbers at all.
No word on how many voters were undecided and that will be the key in New Hampshire as independent (undeclared) voters are the largest voting block in the state–as go the undeclared voters so goes the final results. These are the voters who are going to decide the outcome in this state and as of right now it is too close to predict a winner and still too much time to go.
Now let us go back to that poll which showed Barack Obama with a fifteen point lead for a moment. That poll was conducted by UNH and they have also released a new poll just two weeks later and it shows Barack Obama in the lead by six points this time. So either they have tweaked their polling criteria in an attempt to undo an error or they have Mitt Romney surging far quicker than the other two polls I just shared–I am inclined to believe it is the former, not the latter.
With the election results expected to be real close all across the nation New Hampshire’s four electoral votes could decide who the next president will be (if Al Gore won New Hampshire George Bush would not have ever been president) and one thing is for sure–it is getting very interesting in the Granite State. I believe fully that Mitt Romney is going to win New Hampshire, just a gut feeling.