John McCain’s Nomination Could Benefit New Hampshire

 Cross posted on Grizzly Groundswell

 I visited the New Hampshire GOP website yesterday and I saw a post that was written by NHGOP Chairman Fergus Cullen that I found interesting. As you know, New Hampshire is the state that sprung John McCain and set him on his way to becoming the Republican nominee. Fergus Cullen makes an interesting argument that John McCain’s nomination could be a blessing as to the direction New Hampshire may be moving come November. Here is his statement from the GOP website:

“Senator McCain’s nomination is great news for New Hampshire Republicans,” state Republican Party Chairman Fergus Cullen said today.

“Senator McCain has a unique bond with New Hampshire voters, including the 40 percent of voters who are independents and who decide elections in our state. Not only do New Hampshire Republicans get a nominee who is universally respected within our party, but New Hampshire Democrats get the one Republican they least wanted at the top of our ticket,” Cullen added.

“Senator McCain’s nomination guarantees that New Hampshire will be a competitive swing state in the general election. Coupled with what will be a very competitive U.S. Senate race, we are looking at a political environment in which neither party has a built-in advantage. Unlike in the tidal election of 2006, this election is shaping up to be an equilibrium election in which New Hampshire comes back into political balance. This year, down-ballot candidates will win or lose on their own merits, and consequently, we can expect Republicans to regain many of the seats we lost last election cycle,” Cullen said.

“New Hampshire party bylaws required our three members of the Republican National Committee to remain neutral so long as the nomination was contested. With Senator McCain clinching the nomination, I am pleased to announce that National Committeewoman Phyllis Woods, National Committeeman Sean Mahoney, and I heartily endorse Senator McCain. We look forward to working with Senator McCain and his campaign team to carry New Hampshire for him in the November election,” Cullen said.

 At first I just shrugged this off as political spin but as I thought more about it I believe there is allot of truth to his statement. John McCain is very popular here as evidenced by the primary and he could swing Independents over to the Republican’s side come November. This, in theory, would help to return New Hampshire from the deep blue and move us a little more into the red as Independents influenced by McCain to vote Republican would then return more Republicans to office at the state level. There are a couple of problems with his theory though, and that is where I believe that there is some spin in this statement.

 The first issue, or concern, is that yes many Independents may break towards McCain in the general election, but that does not necessarily mean that they will vote straight ticket Republican, or even for any other Republican on the ballot. Independents are not as likely to vote straight ticket as a voter affiliated with a party. So while he may influence the presidential electoral college in New Hampshire I am not sure how much of a change this will mean for New Hampshire’s state political direction.

 The second concern I have with his statement is the fact that Democrat voters in New Hampshire in the primary outnumbered Republican voters by a wide margin. I am not sure that New Hampshire is ready to swing back toward the right. We still seem to have become a vastly blue state and one election may not be enough to right the ship.

 However, this is going to be a long process, I have to show patience as this plays out over the coming years. Fergus Cullen makes the point that John McCain is the one candidate that New Hampshire Democrats did not want to see as the Republican nominee, and he may be right. John McCain as the presidential nominee, coupled with a hopefully strong Republican candidate for governor, could be the best case scenario for New Hampshire in this election.

 John McCain’s nomination could be a blessing in disguise for New Hampshire, I just hope Fergus Cullen is right about this. Have I changed my tune on John McCain? NO, but looking at the bright side of this, he could be just what New Hampshire needed to balance the political landscape out a little bit.