Democrats threaten reconciliation on healthcare reform, but will it work?

  Much has been made about whether the Democrats will use reconciliation to pass the healthcare reform bill– and I have been just as guilty as anyone else on this topic– but as I have thought about this issue more and more, I am beginning to wonder if it is an issue at all.

  What do I mean by this? Surely if the Democrats use reconciliation to pass a bill that the American people in large numbers do not want than it should be an issue that we should be concerned about, but I am beginning to think that it is a non-issue. Why? Because we are focused on the Senate using reconciliation to pass this bill with a simple 51 vote majority instead of the 60 vote super majority but we are forgetting one thing; we are forgetting that this bill still has to be passed by the House as well.

  While reconciliation will probably allow the Senate to pass this bill with 51 votes, it is uncertain– and probably unlikely– that the House will be able to pass this bill as it now stands.

  That is where the future of this bill lies– in the House, and right now Nancy Pelosi is struggling to get the votes needed to pass it. Due to circumstances beyond her control, the House has lost three of its “yes” votes to either retirement or death. The House passed this bill by a 5 vote margin, 220-215, but only after language was added to ensure that federal funding for abortion was not included in the bill.

  With these three “yes” votes now gone, and with the abortion language stripped from the bill, it would seem that passage in the House is highly unlikely. There is a coalition of at least 20 pro-life, Blue Dog Democrats who have pledged not to vote for this bill unless the Stupak amendment is reinserted. This seems to be highly unlikely, and even if it is the House will then lose the more liberal members.

  This bill could be in real trouble, even if reconciliation is used, which is why I now believe that the threat of reconciliation may be just that– a threat and nothing more, an attempt to intimidate Republicans into voting for this bill because while reconciliation may help it pass the Senate, Republicans will need to be onboard if there is any chance for it to pass the House.

  Democrats are trying to “persuade” Republicans to vote for this bill by claiming that they will pass it either with or without them, but in truth they cannot pass it without them– at least in the House. The truth is that they need some of the Republicans to vote for this bill in order to offset the votes of the Blue Dog Democrats, and I don’t see that happening.

  For all of the talk about reconciliation, it appears to be nothing more than a political game that Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid cannot win.