New Hampshire election projections from UNH pollster

  With the mid-term elections just a few weeks away, I read an article in the New Hampshire Union Leader entitled “For Republicans, it’s ‘2006 in reverse’” that I found interesting. The article was written about projections that Andrew Smith , director of the UNH Survey Center, made at a recent event. 

  I have been hopeful that this would be the year that New Hampshire would begin to swing back to the right after the Democrats have spent the state into near bankruptcy over the last several years, and all indications are that–for the most part–New Hampshire may be ready to do just that.

  Andrew Smith–from the not exactly right-leaning UNH Survey Center–is predicting New Hampshire Republicans will have a great showing in November.

 While John Lynch is still expected to hang on to defeat John Stephen and win another two year term as governor, he may be the last man left standing if these projections are anywhere near being accurate.

  He expects a major turn around in the State House:

The state House currently has 216 Democrats and 174 Republicans with 10 vacancies. Smith said he expects Republicans to end up with 220 to 230 seats.

  That is a complete turn around in the House–a 100+ seat swing, giving control solidly back to the Republicans. This is great news indeed! Smith’s predictions in the state Senate aren’t nearly as dramatic–he expects the Democrats to go from the current 14-10 majority to a 13-11 majority or even split 12-12. But he expects gains nonetheless, and that is good news.

  On the national side there is the very real possibility that Republicans will sweep the two House seats and win the vacant senate seat, (this would be a Republican hold as the retiring Judd Gregg was a Republican), although there is still a chance that Democrats could win either one or both of the House races–neither seat is out of reach for Democrats at this point.

  All in all it looks as if this just might be the year that Republicans in New Hampshire begin to turn it around. While it is disappointing that Governor Lynch is probably going to win re-election–this time closer than any other time–we have to remember that this is going to be a long process. We must also remember that the seats Republicans are projected to gain will go a long way in slowing down the damage that Governor Lynch and his Democrat cronies have done over the last several years.

  Governor Lynch was able to portray himself as a moderate consensus building Democrat when he had a Republican legislature to keep the reigns on him, but once he was given a Democrat majority we soon saw the real, liberal John Lynch on full display.

 Gone was the moderate and in stepped the liberal–from increasing spending a whopping 17.5% in one year and then trying to steal private citizens’ funds from the JUA to help draw down the deficit (which was ruled unconstitutional but that hasn’t stopped him from trying other angles to get his hand on the money), to passing a liberal social agenda and passing nanny state regulations, to raising taxes and fees on everything from cigarettes to car registrations to hotels and meals–we have seen it all.

  If these projections hold firm and Andrew Smith is correct we will probably see John Lynch forced back towards the center by Republicans–back where he started before he became drunk with a Democrat majority and lost control of himself, and we can consider that a victory in itself.

  If we can not be finished with John Lynch once and for all we will have to be content with a restrained John Lynch, for now…..