The Union Leader’s predictions for the midterm election in New Hampshire

  The Union Leader has made its predictions for the November 2nd midterm election and the results–if accurate–are great news, although not perfect.

  According to this article, New Hampshire Republicans can expect to pick up 53 seats in the State House of Representatives, which will give Republicans a 226-147 majority. Currently the Democrats enjoy a 216-173 majority.

  In the State Senate the Union Leader is predicting a total reversal, with Democrats going from a 14-10 majority to a 14-10 Republican majority. The New Hampshire Republican party is predicting a 16-8 or 17-7 majority but that seems to be out of reach. 

  The New Hampshire Union Leader is predicting that the Executive Council, which is currently held by the Democrats 3-2, will swing into Republican control by  4-1 majority.

  Moving on to the United States seats, the Union Leader is predicting Republican Kelly Ayotte to defeat Democrat Paul Hodes for the United States senate seat by a margin of 56-42%

  They are also predicting Republican Frank Guinta to defeat Democrat Carol Shea-Porter in the race for first district United States representative by a 54-45% margin.

  But the predictions aren’t all good for the Republican candidates in New Hampshire. In the second congressional district–historically a much more liberal district than the first district–the Union Leader is predicting Democrat Ann Kuster to defeat Republican Charlie Bass in a close race by a 50-48% margin. The feeling here is that this is an anti-incumbent wave and because Charlie Bass is an ex-representative Ann Kuster has done a good job at portraying Charlie Bass as an inside Washington politician. I am still holding out hope that Charlie Bass is going to pull this out.

  And then there is the race for governor, which pits Democrat John Lynch–who is looking to become the first four term governor in state history–against John Stephen. The New Hampshire Union Leader is predicting a fourth term for John Lynch, claiming that he will win by a margin of 51-48%. This is a much closer margin than I think he will win by and gives me hope that late breaking voters may be able to put John Stephen over the top.

  All in all, if these predictions come close to fruition it will be a great day–albeit not perfect–for the state of New Hampshire. If the New Hampshire House of Representatives, New Hampshire Senate, and the Executive Council all fall into the hands of the Republican party it will force the lone Democrat standing, Governor John Lynch, back into the center where he began his career before the Democrat gains over the last four years.

  He will no longer be able to spend as much as he wishes–as he has over the last four years–because an Executive Council comprised of a 4-1 Republican majority will control the purse strings and force him to become more fiscally responsible.

  If these predictions are accurate, New Hampshire may be on the road back to sanity, this is a great start but it is just that–a start. It has taken New Hampshire several years to get to this point and it will take us a few election cycles to turn this ship around. But New Hampshire appears to be on the right track, the process begins on November 2nd but it will not end until we take back this state.