Will Paul Ryan be forced to pull the Obamacare replacement bill from the floor?

 The vote on the Obamacare replacement legislation (I have decided to stop calling it the Obamacare repeal legislation even though “replacement” does not seem to be the proper term either) is scheduled for Thursday but will that vote actually take place?

  We know the Democrats are going to vote against the legislation en masse so the only question is how is the Republican vote going to break down? Paul Ryan insists he has enough votes to pass the bill, however Rand Paul disagrees and today he said there are at least 35 Republican who will vote against it. He also claims that Paul Ryan will be forced to pull the bill, here is more: 

I think there’s easily 35 no votes right now so unless something happens in the next 24 hours, I would predict they pull the bill and start over. I think if conservatives stick together, they will have earned a seat at the table where real negotiation to make this bill an acceptable bill will happen. But it’s interesting what conservatives are doing to change the debate. We went from keeping the Obamacare taxes for a year—hundreds of billions of dollars—but they’re coming towards us because we’re standing firm. So we have to stick together, and if we do stick together there will be a real negotiation on this. The main goal I have is not to pass something that does not fix the situation. If a year from now, insurance rates and premiums are still going through the roof and it’s now a Republican plan it will be a disservice to the president and all of us if we pass something that doesn’t work.

  With the changes to the bill which came earlier this week Rand Paul is claiming if the conservatives stick together they will be able to get what they want–which is a full repeal and this will mean they will have to start over.

  Both sides are jockeying for position here but who will ultimately be victorious is too hard to predict at this time. I find it hard to believe Paul Ryan would risk the embarrassment of scheduling a vote only to pull the legislation so I am inclined to believe he does have the votes. However he could be using this as an opportunity to shame the conservatives into voting for legislation they do not approve of by portraying them as not going through with a campaign promise.

  Of course this bill is not a full repeal so Rand Paul can make the same claim against Paul Ryan and the moderate Republicans. Rand Paul could be making this claim to pressure the moderates into making more concessions until the conservatives decide they have gotten all they can get from Paul Ryan and the moderates.

  How this is going to play out is anyone’s guess right now but if I had to put money on it I would bet the bill will pass the House but the Senate is another story.

malo periculosam libertatem quam quietum servitium