Is Bush Derangement Syndrome Over?

Cross posted on Grizzly Groundswell

By Mr.Pink Eyes

 I read this interesting article this morning about Bush Derangement Syndrome and it’s effects on the upcoming election. The article is about New Hampshire Senator John Sununu and his rebound in the polls against Democrat Jeanne Shaheen. The theory (at least the one put forth by Republicans) is that with President Bush clearly in a lame duck situation, and the emergence and popularity of President Obama and his rival John McCain, that Bush Derangement Syndrome will be a non factor in the election. President Bush is in the distance somewhere, a non issue. The theory is that people will no longer be voting against Bush the way they did in 2006. and for their candidate. Voters will be looking more closely at the issues than they did in 2006. That is a huge difference.

It’s too early to say with certainty, but political analysts are seeing signs that the “Bush effect” may be fading, and Republican candidates — particularly John Sununu — might be shedding the albatross of the unpopular President.

Two years ago, Democrats swept to victory in New Hampshire and much of the nation by exploiting voter frustration with President George W. Bush. With the war in Iraq going poorly, Granite State voters, in a historic election, ousted two incumbent U.S. House members, replaced them with Democrats, and awarded Democrats with control of the state House and Senate, as well as the Executive Council.

Today, Democrats are banking on a replay.

 But that replay may be happen.

the 2008 presidential election has taken over the national political spotlight. National news reports are consumed by Barack Obama and John McCain. Bush, a lame duck with five months left in his tenure, has been relegated to a less conspicuous place on the national political scene.

 President Bush is an afterthought in the minds of many voters, a thing of the past. As Stephen King wrote in the Dark Tower series, “The world has moved on.”

“I do think that at some level, given the shape that Bush is in as a lame-duck President and the intense focus on the (Obama-McCain) election, there is a tendency for the incumbent to get pushed to the side. Bush still has low approval, but it may be that the visceral reaction that voters had to him in 2006 has been somewhat muted by their pre-occupation with McCain and Obama.”

With Bush close to the end of his term and the presidential race front and center, Republican voters are reawakening, said UNH poll director Andrew Smith.

 This “reawakening” is what Republicans are clinging to (not guns or religion) with the (audacity of) hope that maybe the slaughter in November won’t be as bad as previously predicted. Republicans who stayed home last election to teach Republican politicians a lesson, and there were many of them here in New Hampshire, in theory are going to turn out in this election. This will vastly change the outlook for Republicans in the senate and house races.

 While the article that I linked to was about New Hampshire politics, and John Sununu in particular, it could be symbolic of races around the country. John Sununu has been able to come back from a 16 point polling deficit to come into a statistical tie with his opponent, much of this considered to be because of the irrelevance of the president as an issue. Sununu is considered to be the most vulnerable senator in this upcoming election. If the ties that Democrats are trying to make between he and the president are a non issue in such a vulnerable seat than the prospects look better for other Republicans across the country hoping to hold onto their seats. That is why this affects more than New Hampshire, if Bush Derangement Syndrome has been replaced by the “Bush Irrelevancy Factor” than the upcoming election may not turn out to be the huge Democrat victory once expected.

 I am not sure I buy into this theory though. The far left still harbors this hatred for the president and have been so anxious to get to the polls for so long that the “Bush Irrelevancy factor” is a non issue to them. Perhaps the vitriolic language has died down to some extent, but there is still enough anti-Bush sentiment out there, I think, to draw people to the polls to vote against him. Hell, Russ Feingold is still trying to bring articles of impeachment forth much to the delight of left wing bloggers.

  The presidency is lost no matter who wins in November so the focus must be on the elections in the house and senate. While I can’t judge the sentiment in other state elections, if the latest polls in New Hampshire are accurate than a feeling that I have been getting recently may not be ill founded after all. I sense the beginning of a turn around in New Hampshire, a slight shift back to the right. In 2006 a “blue wave” swept over New Hampshire and changed the landscape dramatically, now New Hampshire may be ready for a “red tide”, (that description is likely to bring unflattering remarks from the left but you get the point). Or at least the beginning of one.

 This may be more than just an end to Bush Derangement Syndrome, but perhaps it plays a part in it. The “reawakening” of Republicans in the state may be attributed to and end to Bush Derangement Syndrome, or the “Bush irrelevance factor”, but it goes beyond that. It goes to the issues, and the direction the state has gone in two short years. That has what has really “reawakened” Republicans in New Hampshire. That is of course if they are truly energized at all, it is too hard to tell from just one poll. But I am beginning to see a shift and I am beginning to have (the audacity of) hope that New Hampshire may be ready to correct the mistake of 2006.

 If it can happen in New Hampshire, it can happen all across the country. Bush Derangement Syndrome a thing of the past? We will just have to wait and see.