Latest New Hampshire poll shows Barack Obama’s approval rating below 50% (02/05/10)

  More than two years ago I predicted that New Hampshire Democrats would win elections in both 2006 and 2008 but then the tide would begin to turn against them and in 2010 the state Republicans would begin to make gains in the state.

  I was right about the 2006 and 2008 elections, but those were the easy ones. It was not hard to predict that President Bush’s low approval ratings in this state would cost the local Republicans problems; even John McCain’s popularity in the state were not enough to help Republicans and New Hampshire voted for Barack Obama in 2008, this helped state Democrats regain seats they already held and turned all branches of state government over to the Democrats for the first time in over 100 years.

  Now, the latest poll on Barack Obama’s approval rating in New Hampshire is out and it could be a sign that my last prediction may be on the verge of becoming true. Barack Obama has fallen below 50% favorability in the latest opinion poll. Only 48% of New Hampshirites approve of the president’s job performance, while 47% disapprove.

  This is the first time that he has fallen below 50% in New Hampshire and that is not the worst news for the president in this poll. New Hampshire’s largest voting block, the Independents– a voting block that overwhelmingly voted for Barack Obama in 2008–  has really turned against the president. According to the poll, (the link provided above does not contain the full article that appeared in the print edition, this number comes from the print edition), on 38% of Independent voters now approve of Barack Obama’s job performance.

  If this trend continues we can expect the carry over effect to help Republican candidates in the 2010 election. New Hampshire Democrats cannot win if the Independents remain opposed to the president by such a large margin.  Both New Hampshire representatives are Democrats and the one senate seat up for election in 2010 is held by retiring Republican Judd Gregg. These are going to be important elections and it appears as if New Hampshire is ready to swing back towards the right in the elections later this year.

  I attended a tea party earlier this year and I can tell you that I believe the people of New Hampshire are upset; not just at Washington, but also at our state politicians. They are ready for a change and Barack Obama’s plummeting poll numbers– they have fallen 18% in New Hampshire since his inauguration– show us this discontent first hand.

  2010 looks to be a big year for New Hampshire Republicans unless something drastic happens to turn the tide. I don’t see that happening.