Latest New Hampshire poll (07/15/10)

  I believe that one of the pivotal elections this fall is going to be the senate race right here in New Hampshire. New Hampshire’s one remaining Republican senator, Judd Gregg, is retiring and it is of the utmost importance that Republicans– and even more importantly, conservatives– win this seat in November.

  Paul Hodes– the second district Democrat congressman– is running unopposed for the senate seat, while there are several Republicans vying to hold on to the vacated seat. Paul Hodes must be defeated at all costs!

  This senate race has become even more important for the future of New Hampshire as the state has trended Democrat in the last three election cycles; but it appears as if New Hampshire is ready to take a turn to the right. While if the Republicans win this seat it will technically be a “hold” the results could have wide ranging effects on the future of the state’s politics. If New Hampshire is going to swing back towards the right, it must start with this seat.

  In previous polls the news was not great for Paul Hodes; he trailed the two Republican front-runners– Kelly Ayotte and Bill Binnie– by more than 10 percentage points. But according to the latest New Hampshire poll, the news has gotten even worse for Paul Hodes.

  The numbers haven’t changed much in a matchup between Paul Hodes and Kelly Ayotte– she is leading  49 to 37 percent. Likewise the numbers haven’t changed much in a head to head matchup between Paul Hodes and Bill Binnie– Bill Binnie leads Paul Hodes by a 49 to 38 percent margin. But where the news gets worse for Paul Hodes is with the results of the other two front runners for the Republican nomination.

  For the first time Paul Hodes trails all four Republican front-runners. Jim Bender now leads Paul Hodes by a 43 to 39 percent, and Ovide Lamontagne– the man who has the best conservative credentials of the bunch, the man that I believe the Tea Party will endorse, and who I am leaning towards voting for– is now leading Paul Hodes by a 43 to 40 percent margin.

  All is not lost for Paul Hodes, he still has plenty of time to pull this out. He leads in fundraising and we can expect the usual Democrat special interest groups and the national Democrat party to pump money into his campaign. And there is also word that President Clinton is going to spend quite a bit of time here campaigning for Paul Hodes. In light of the recent election results in New Hampshire, the Democrats see this as a seat that they can expect to pick up and they are going to throw all available resources at New Hampshire  in order to accomplish that result.

  New Hampshire could be on the verge of correcting a major error, and if these numbers can hold up we may be ready to take back our state.

  The poll numbers are even worse for Barack Obama in New Hampshire:

According to the poll, 46 percent strongly disapprove of the job he has been doing as President, 11 percent somewhat disapprove, 27 percent strongly approve and 15 percent somewhat approve

  A total of 57% of those polled look at Barack Obama unfavorably while only 42% approve of the job he is doing. If history is too be repeated Republicans can expect to ride the anti-Obama feeling in this state in November in much the same manner that Democrats were able to ride Bush hatred to victory in the last three elections. 

  The one bright spot for Democrats in New Hampshire is the fact that New Hampshirites still have a favorable opinion of Governor John Lynch. 57% of those polled still approve at least a somewhat  of the job that he has done as governor. While this is way down from his previous astronomical approval rating, it doesn’t seem nearly low enough for us to be able to expect that he will lose re-election.

  The biggest question heading into the election will be: will Governor Lynch’s approval rating trump the anti-Obama sentiment in the state, thereby helping Paul Hodes win the senate seat, or will Republicans capitalize on the anti-Obama feeling to bring victory over the man who is part of the problem in Washington– Paul Hodes?

  This election period is just starting to heat up, it is going to be a fun ride.