A Republican lost opportunity: Why is the 2012 presidential election off to a slow start?
I have recently been thinking about how the 2012 election season compares to the 2008 election season and to me there just doesn’t seem to be the activity here in New Hampshire that there should be at this point in time. In other words, it seems as if the 2012 presidential election is off to a slow start. Although I am fully aware that many people are probably not ready to begin yet another campaign so soon after the midterm elections were completed, the fact is that it is time to start focusing on the next critical election, and the likely presidential candidates are going to have to declare in the very near future. I consider this my 2012 election “kick off” post and I hope that the likely presidential candidates are soon going to leap into the fray, but as of yet they seem unwilling to do so.
Looking back at 2008 it seems as if the candidates began to announce their intentions to run for president shortly after President Bush was re-elected. I know the campaigns didn’t get into full swing until after the 2006 midterms, but it did seem like an endless campaign with many high profile names in the mix from an early date. Some of this can be attributed to the fact that the 2008 presidential election campaign was nothing more than a continuation of the 2004 campaign with Democrats continuing an assault on President Bush and his policies because they looked to gain on the momentum of the growing anti-Bush sentiment which they helped to cultivate over several years which finally culminated with the election of Barack Obama.
Yet here we are with only one year to go before New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation primary, and while we have an idea about who will be running for president, nobody has made an official announcement, and with the exception of Tim Pawlenty and Rick Santorum there have been very few visits to the state by people who most people feel intend to run for president. New Hampshirites pay close attention to which candidates show up in our state and which candidates ignore our state and on the whole if you ignore New Hampshire you will most likely not win New Hampshire; still all of the people–Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin, Mike Huckabee, and so on–who would be considered “big names” have been missing in action.
Today in the New Hampshire Union Leader there was an article about the relatively slow start of the campaign season in which it quoted political observers who claimed it was unfair to compare the 2012 campaign to the 2008 campaign:
they say it’s unfair to compare the two cycles because 2008 was an exceptional year, with open presidential races on both sides of the ticket and candidates on every street corner leading up to the first-in-the-nation primary.
The article then goes on to point out that a possible reason for the slow start is that all of the candidates are watching each other to see what their possible opponents do before making a decision. If this it true, I find it troubling that no Republican candidate feels as if they can step up and be the voice and face of the Republican party; now is the time for leaders, it is not the time for the candidates to be looking over their shoulders to see which other possible candidate should become the leader of the party. If you do not feel as if you can lead–or if you feel there is a better leader out there somewhere–step aside, drop your ambitions, endorse someone else, and let that person come to the forefront. The problem is that nobody seems willing to step onto the national stage and explain to the American people why they should be the leader of the Republican party–and why they would be a better choice than Barack Obama–moving into the 2012 presidential election.
But I think apart from this, and even while taking into account the fact that there will only be a contested primary election in the Republican party, there is still has to be more to it than that.
I am beginning to attribute this to a lack of excitement or enthusiasm coupled with the belief by many of those who may be gearing up to run against Barack Obama that the president may be unbeatable, hence they are unwilling to hurt their prospects of running again in 2016 by being defeated in 2012. While I believe that Barack Obama is going to be hard to beat in 2012 simply because he has the media and the far left on his side no matter what he does in the next two years, I find this lack of enthusiasm on the part of his potential opponents to be more than just a little disheartening. And I also feel as if the Republicans are missing an opportunity to seize the momentum that was handed to them last November.
Barack Obama has become one of the most divisive presidents in history–equal to if not greater than the man he succeeded–and I think that if the right candidate comes along Barack Obama can be defeated, so this lack of enthusiasm is quite troublesome to me. While candidates are waiting to see what is going to happen in the Obama regime in the next few months the Republicans are losing precious time.
Now is the time when the Republicans should look to make further gains from the 2010 midterm elections by going after Barack Obama and his radical policies but their indecision is costing the Republicans valuable time which I am not sure they will be able to recoup if they do not act swiftly.
The American people gave Barack Obama–a virtual unknown–a chance in 2008 but they did not know exactly what he stood for because he spent his time in both the Illinois Senate and the United States Senate meticulously trying to leave his resume conveniently blank, but now the American people know what Barack Obama stands for and they rejected him in a loud voice last November. Republican presidential candidates should look to capitalize on this momentum but they seem unwilling to do so and because of this they may give Barack Obama an escape route that could lead to his re-election
America's Watchtower 
I think you’re going to see candidates begin their brown nosing of NH residents later this summer. Pretty soon you’ll be knee deep in presidential candidates – at least on the Republican side.
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I hope so, it seems as if nobody is too enthusiastic about running as it stands right now.
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We’ve been in non-stop campaign mode since not too long after the 2000 election – that’s over a decade.
I remember politics taking some time off between elections – maybe now everyone’s just too tired. Plus perhaps now that there’s a new majority in the House, folks want to see what it’s capable of before gettint too involved in 2012 Presidential politics.
But please, please . . . let Sarah make a serious run for it . . .
Take good care and may God bless us all!
TGY
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Maybe this is a cooling down period and people need a little time off. And no Sarah, please don’t run.
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You know Steve, I have noticed that Republicans seem to blow a number of opportunities. The lame duck session was an example of where they had the wind at their backs and caved in in regards to extending the Bush tax rates, to rushing through the START treaty and extending unemployment. They blew it Steve. Now they can’t seem get it gear with the 2012 elections. This doesn’t surprise me.
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I hope that we are wrong, but it does seem as if they are not getting it right so far.
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You think the GOP has made an art form of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory? You should have seen me crying in my beer when, after the Dems took the House in 2006, they selected Nancy Pelosi as Speaker. I swear, that woman must have a huge video library of all the Dems skeletons.
2012 will heat up soon enough – let’s try to enjoy this relatively calm time between the storms.
Take good care and may God bless us all!
TGY
PS – Run, Sarah, run!
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Yeah run Sarah, so the Republicans have NO chance of winning??
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Yeah, looking back on it now the Democrats would have been much better off if they had elected someone not so far to the left as Pelosi. In the end she may have done more to lose the House than Barack Obama.
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Yes Eric, that is exactly why Georgia Yankee wants Sarah to run! Isn’t that right GY? 🙂
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It may be a bit early for some of them to start declaring, Steve. It was September of 2007 before the Huckabee campaign really kicked off for a lot of us, although he declared earlier than that. We should start seeing movement soon, as those who really intend to run start making their intentions known.
Speaking of Mike Huckabee, I don’t think we will see him enter this round. I have no inside information, but I get the feeling he is very happy doing what he is doing now and is not inclined to give that up.
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Maybe I am being a little impatient, but hopefully we will begin to see who is serious about running and who isn’t. I think you may be right about Huckabee, he seems happy with what he is doing and I don’t see why he would want to give it up.
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It seems I recall a few candidates using up too much of their scarce resources too early in the last campaign. This may be a ‘wait as long as you can’ approach before the spending begins in the hopes it will last longer. I’m more inclined to think you’re right in thinking nobody wants to use up their shot as Obama’s position gets stronger with the economy. But in the end it will be jobs and economic confidence that wins. Bush Sr. had the wind at his back until the economy floundered. Obama has a very weak economy and a very meager rebound so far that is helping him. That could all collapse in a second. There’s plenty of time but it would be good to see someone step into the void and claim the mantle.
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Obama is enjoying a rebound right now and maybe that is scaring away some of the candidates but if they are so easily scared I don’t want them running for president anyway.
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I am wondering if it could be also, that the MSM wants to support the old tired warn out Rhino’s. All we hear about are polls with the various Rhinos…could be that othres are out and about and we are not hearing about it, unless they flub up.
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Hopefully the Republicans learned from John McCain: the media loves a RINO and will prop him up until that person runs against a Democrat, then the media will trun on him.
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Dunno about that, Bunkerdude. What with all this Internet and instant communications, etc., etc., I’d think twice before blaming the MSM for anything. If there are good candidates out there, why are you letting the MSM be gatekeepers? We already know that the print media have taken a terrible beating, and the percentage of Americans that describe the MSM as their main source of news keeps on dropping.
If the MSM is anywhere near as influential as it used to be, that’s either because it’s been permitted to keep that influence, or it’s demonstrated sufficient credibility to retain it and keep influencing people.
But if conservatives are worried about the MSM, I think they’re either deluding themselves or looking for bogeymen on whom to blame anticipated failure.
And may God bless us all!
TGY
PS – Steve – yeah, chain-pulling is sometimes hard to resist (RE: Run Sara Run), but I gave a little deeper explanation – hope it helps.
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I think the influence of the MSM has been greatly diminished with the internet, but I do think that they still do hold some influence, they are not totally irrelevant just yet. There are still people that watch the MSM for all of their news.
I knew what you were up to with your Palin comment–and I understand completely the urge to pull someone chain–I did see your other comment after I replied to Eric’s comment above.
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I guess it depends on who you listen to, but from what I’ve heard, Obama is most definitely one term only. I hope that the Republicans are not “afraid” to step up, I hope there is a strategy. Maybe, just maybe, they are waiting to shorten by a little bit the already painfully long campaign season. Maybe? And I agree with you, Steve and most reasonable conservatives— NO Sarah, NO!
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I would like to think that Obama is a one-termer but you, being in Massachusetts, have seen exactly what can happen once the Democrats turn out their election machine. They are almost unbeatable when they turn out the unions and the other entitlement grabbers. He will be hard to beat because the machine will turn out for him.
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I think John has it right. Also, it seems to me that the Republicans are without a real leader. They need to get their act together and soon. Obama has already started his his campaign.
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I agree, I just don’t see any Republican leader on the horizon and this is going to be a maor problem.
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Well, honestly speaking, considering both the GOP and Dems, right after the mid-terms in years they haven’t occupied the WH, have been fairly disorganized. I don’t think that in 2002 there was much of a consensus that Kerry would be the Dem standard-bearer, for example. Nor, for that matter, was GWB a clear front-runner for the GOP nod in 1998. And many have commented about the problem of running out of steam early; I think this is a major reason so many are still on the sidelines.l
As to Mrs. Palin, I agree that it would be bad for her to enter the primaries. If she wins, it’s doubtful she’d win the general election, if she loses, the bloodbeth that follows will be a terrible sight to behold. As long as she keeps herself out of the competition, she’ll retain enough credibility for herself to speak up for a portion of the GOP. She’ll keep a seat at the table and make a nice living for herself if she just continues what she’s doing and doesn’t form any exploratory committees or sign any candidates’ affidavits.
Take good care, and may God bless us all!
TGY
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I really can’t disagree with anything you just wrote GY.
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I’m with the people who think we need a break from this. The biggest problem I had with the 2008 election… aside from Obama and McCain… is that it lasted way too long. Every state was in such a big hurry to have THEIR primary first that we didn’t have time to examine all the candidates, and ended up with months and months and months of two losers fighting to see who could come up with the worst losing proposal.
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Yeah – watching the election returns that night in 2008, it was depressing to hear some commentators say things like “Well, for some, this just means the beginning of campaigning for 2012!”
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Maybe you are right, I guess what I am worried about is the fact that nobody seems to be stepping up as a leader in the Republican party. Maybe I just need to give it more time.
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Republicans don’t have to get out early and all they have to do is appear on Fox News to appeal to their base. This will be the cheapest Presidnetial Primary spending in years. The battle will take place on Fox as that is where all the Republicans are. tehy havebeen there for awhile anyway…Palin, Huckabee and Gingrich.
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Palin, Huckabee, and Gingrich; three people I hope do not get the nomination!
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I am an independent. I was considering voting with conservatives this time because I agree with their immigration positions, gay marriage positions as well as military spending. However I am also a baby boomer and after reading Paul Ryan’s 2012 budget which according to the CBO, includes giving poor sick people vouchers to replace Medicare as well as cutting off food stamps for poor families and at the same time continue to give massive tax breaks to BP, Exxon, Chev. Why should American tax payer give billions to big oil while robbing the poor? $36 billion is how much oil companies stand to get from taxpayers over the next 10 years. I think what the people have to be clear on, is who’s voting against our interests for these big companies that are making enormous profits. It should be a campaign issue in 2012 and if a republican steps up to plate to put a stop to it, He will then be the new leader of the party. Until then they have little to no chance of winning in 2012.
The last paragraph–> “American people know what President Barack Obama stands for and they rejected him in a loud voice last November.” LMAO thats is a silly statement at best. I am an American, and myself as well as millions of others did not reject him so please be careful not to portray that you speak for ALL Americans. Yes I realize that Obama’s approval rating is currently low, but still, the president can take some solace in the fact several past presidents have been beset by slumping numbers at the 2-year mark: In addition to Clinton, both Reagan and Jimmy Carter found their support at 42 percent at this point in their first term. Of course, Clinton and Reagan went on to big reelection wins only two years later.
I cannot believe republicans are still crying over losing when it’s their own fault for choosing such weak candidates.” WE THE REAL AMERICAN people voted him in, yes we know what he stands for that why he won the election. By many mathematician’s calculations the economy appears to be improving, and we have had 11 months of job growth. I realize it is a slow growth but it is growth. Yes he had to borrow trillions to dig us out of the hole that took 8 years of Bush to put us in and I find it very impressive that Obama was even able to stop our economy from another great depression.
Obama will be extremely hard to beat in 2012. As we’ve noted here many times, incumbent presidents tend to get re-elected. He’s an incredibly disciplined campaigner. He’s likable. He’s free from personal scandal. Our President with the balls to walk right in to challenge a building full of republicans and crushed their ideas & lies with no aides or people handing him facts… Obama OWNED them all within 90 mins and it’s still on youtube! If he can take on hundreds of republicans and end up owning them that fast imagine what he could do in a debate with just one!
Also the fact that he’s going to have an unprecedented amount of money at his disposal.
As factor in that even Mitt Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts and one of the handful of very likely candidates, said last September that Mr. Obama would be “difficult to beat” if the economy continued improving, which he predicted it would. (He later changed his tune and said Republicans should focus on the economy if they wanted to win.) But Romney knows he will lose big time with a debate with Obama so he’s likely not going to risk running in 2012.
Seems obvious the GOP isn’t serious about running anyone this time out…they’re still reeling from Dubya’s destruction of the economy. Meanwhile, whackos like the Alex Jones weirdos are backing crazy old Ron “Tin Foil Hat” Paul, all the Arkie tilt-up churchers are going with Hick-A-Be, NO ONE is going for “Tea-Paw”lenty, who’s nearly bankrupted MN with his failed “conservative” policies, and Mitch Daniels poo-pooed his pants with his Planned Parenthood debacle, Michele Bachmann’s multitude of stupid statements are providing more fun than did Sarah “Plain and Stupid’s” last year, and, to top it all off, Snot Walker of WI will be recalled in March, 2012, setting a perfect anti-Tea Bagger tone for the summer campaign season.
The GOP has NO ONE TO RUN! Romney? HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
The Tea Party. The emergence of the Tea Party movement as a force inside the Republican Party requires potential presidential candidates to pick sides in an intraparty philosophical struggle. The risks are clear for some Republicans who may have to alter or modify earlier positions to get through a contentious primary. Less clear are the benefits of having that support during a general election, especially if it means alienating independents such as myself in the process. Some of the most high-profile Tea Party candidates in 2010 did not fare so well in the general election and now with Paul Ryan scaring the hell out of baby boomers, their chances are even worse..
I don’t see republicans trying to run Sara failin again, so looks like their best chance is the whako –> TRUMP LMAO!
Good luck with that one……..
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I was not speaking for all Americans, because the American people spoke for themselves last November, and they rejected Barack Obama and his policies. That is why the Democrats suffered historic losses.
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Looking from the outside – is it possible that republicans are hesitant to step up and nominate because behind the rhetoric many realize that the situation with the economy might really be beyond their power to change? They see they end up in the same place as Obama – venom, pressure and plummeting ratings once people realized everything is still as bad as it was.
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That is an interesting idea and you may be onto something there. Perhaps they feel the office is not worth the aggrevation.
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