Ben Nelson will not seek reelection: What does it mean in the long run?
In what is being called a huge blow to the chances of the Democrats holding onto the Senate we learned today that Nebraska Senator Ben Nelson will not seek reelection in 2012. While normally I would agree that the news of an incumbent not seeking reelection would be a huge chance for the opposition party to win that seat I am not sure this is the case.
Ben Nelson was in trouble and the Republicans already felt that his seat was one of the most vulnerable in the Senate. While Ben Nelson probably felt that he was going to be in a tough fight for reelection and decided he wasn’t up to the fight ahead, I feel that this might actually offer the Democrats a better chance at holding onto the seat.
Ben Nelson drew criticism for his stance in the Obamacare debate when he sold his vote for what became known as the “Cornhusker Kickback” and while this would have served to drive Republican voters to the polls that whole issue is off the table in Nebraska in the upcoming election. Democrats will now be able to put forth a candidate who was not involved in the healthcare debate and this should work to their advantage moving forward as they look to hold onto this Senate seat.
But the most important factor in the Republicans quest to win control of the Senate lies at the top of the ticket in my opinion; the Republicans must nominate a candidate for president who will be able to rally the party around himself and to this point I feel that there is a real enthusiasm gap between the voters and the likely eventual Republican nominee and this could be the deciding factor.
If the Republicans do not nominate a candidate who will be able to rally Republicans around him then not only is the presidency lost to the Republicans, but so is the chance at taking over the Senate and holding onto control of the House. And I am growing more and more doubtful that the Republican candidate will generate the enthusiasm needed to take out Barack Obama or enough Democrats to gain control over the legislature.
With all of the Republicans brightest stars sitting on the sideline in the 2012 election I am not sure that candidate exists. So while Obamacare seems to have claimed another victim in the short term, and while Ben Nelson’s retirement is a symbolic defeat to Obamacare, I am not sure it will equate to a Republican victory in the long term.
America's Watchtower 
Nelson voted with the Republicans on all major bills. THAT is why his seat was in jeopardy.
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But, I took off the Brownshirt and said something bad about Republicans. That should make you happy.
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The problem, as I see it, is that the Republicans don’t have a real dynamic candidate. I’m not yet swayed by any, except Huntsman, and he’s getting no press at all.
Why?
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You are right, there just isn’t anybody exciting at the top of the ticket and I am afraid it will lead to defeat in a year where Obama should be beatable. This happened to the Dems in ’04 when they couldn’t beat an unpopular president because they nominated Kerry.
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I thought his name was BEN… Ben Nelson…
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Doh! I dropped the ball on that one Fred, thanks for correcting me. I have fixed my error.
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Nelson’s problem is not that he voted with some Republicans and so is unpopular with liberals; rather it is that Nebraska is a mostly conservative state and any Dem will have an uphill battle.
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That news makes me feel a bit better, but I still would like him to have stayed in the race because of the Obamacare baggage.
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Good article and comments. Nelson got his perks, and only looking out for himself, …. he saw the writing on the wall!
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Thanks josiaha, I think you are right. He saw the writing on the wall and he didn’t have the will inside to fight again so he retired. He knew what was coming and this probably gives the Democrats a better chance at winning.
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What has happened since 2010 is all the momentum the conservative movement had is all but gone. I’m with you. I don’t believe we can place a check in the win column. Since 2010 the Democrats have managed to shape the narrative because the lie so effortlessly and they have the MSM behind them to promote their agenda. Additionally the Republican Leadership in the House and Senate has failed miserably. This is why many conservatives are extremely concerned with the current course the establishment is steering the conservative movement. With the Tea Party staying relatively quiet, the enthusiasm of 2010 has diminished and we are now dangerously close to shutting down again. We need something different.
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I agree with your analysis John; the Democrats have won the PR war and they are able to get their message out while the Republicans just can’t seem to get their act together. John Boehner has to go as speaker, he has not led the party and has been outflanked during every battle. I also wonder where the Tea Party is, perhaps they are waiting until the Summer to make themselves heard.
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I am trying to be a bit more of an optimist. Once we have a candidate, no matter who, the attacks will finally start on Obama. All of what he has done will make it in ads, and how will he answer it? Right now, it is expected that the candidates will fuss amongst themselves. Let us try and keep our chins up!
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Agreed… Let us just hope and pray it’s NOT Ron Paul…
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I’m trying to keep my chin up but it is hard. I hope you are right and we just need to wait until the general election starts, but honestly I am not thrilled about Mitt as the nominee and I think that is who it is going to be.
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I agree that we need a dynamic candidate that will get the base fired up. I’m not seeing one yet.
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It’s sad Matt; nobody has grabbed ahold of the reigns and said follow me.
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