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The polls in New Hampshire are getting very interesting

October 28, 2014

 With one week to go the polls in New Hampshire are getting very interesting as most of the races seem to be tightening up. 

  According to this article the latest poll done by NEC shows most of the races in a dead heat. Here is more:

In the U.S. Senate race, the NEC poll is consistent with its poll last week. Republican Scott Brown leads Sen. Jeanne Shaheen 48.3 to 46.8 percent also within the margin of error. Last week, Brown led, 47.7 to 47.3 percent.

  This race was considered a Democratic hold when the race began. Scott Brown was trailing badly and the outcome did not appear to be in doubt. But, as I have written here, Jeanne Shaheen has had a bad week or two and now Scott Brown is slightly ahead. Suddenly it looks as though this is going to come down to the wire.

  The 1st District Congressional race is close as well:

There were two polls out tonight on the 1st District U.S. Senate race. The NEC poll showed Republican challenger Frank Guinta has opened a small lead on U.S. Rep. Carol Shea-Porter, 49 to 42.9 percent. Last week’s NEC poll had Guinta leading Shea-Porter, 47.4 to 45.7 percent. The margin of error is 4.1 percent.

Also tonight, a Granite State Poll conducted for WMUR television by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center showed Guinta and Shea-Porter close but Shea-Porter ahead, 44 to 40 percent, just outside of the 3.8 percent margin of error.

  The one exception appears to be in the 2nd Congressional District where Republican challenger Marilinda Garcia does not seem to be making any headway in the race against Democratic incumbent Ann Kuster:

NEC’s poll of the 2nd Congressional District race showed U.S. Rep. Ann Kuster leading Republican challenger Marilinda Garcia, 49.2 to 42 percent, outside of the 4.1 percent margin of error.

Last week, Kuster led Garcia, 48.7 to 43.2 percent.

  But the real shocker comes in the governors race between Republican challenger Walt  Havenstein and Governor Hassan. Governor Hassan was not considered to be in any danger but suddenly this race is a dead heat as well:

The latest New England College poll, released this evening, shows that suddenly Republican candidate for governor Walt Havenstein has turned an 8 percentage point deficit into a virtual tie.

The NEC poll, completed for NH1 News, shows Hassan ahead of Havenstein, but only by 47.2 to 46.9 percent, well within the 2.9 percent margin of error. Last week’s poll had Hassan at 50.7 percent and Havenstein at 42.5 percent.

  That is quite a turn of events in just one short week and it could show that all Democrats are in trouble in New Hampshire if this trend continues over the next week. 

  Currently 3% of New Hampshire voters are undecided and when they pull the curtain behind them next Tuesday they will most likely determine the outcome of these elections. 

6 Comments leave one →
  1. bunkerville's avatar
    October 28, 2014 7:59 pm

    I have heard the Dem pundits way that this will be a bell weather. If it goes GOP it will be a long night for the Dems. Who knows, but we will be watching this one closely.

    Liked by 1 person

    • Steve Dennis's avatar
      October 28, 2014 8:02 pm

      I agree, New Hampshire could tell us how the Democrats are going to do on a national level. If the Republicans do well here it could spell trouble for the Democrats nationally. I love being in the center of this, which is why I love our “first in the nation” primary status.

      Liked by 1 person

      • bunkerville's avatar
        October 28, 2014 8:04 pm

        And the returns should come in early on as I recall. Except I dont know about all the early voting business up there. The Bunkervites will be gathered to have a toast. We could not go through another 2012.

        Liked by 1 person

      • Steve Dennis's avatar
        October 28, 2014 8:08 pm

        I remember how devastated we all were after the 2012 election and I cannot go through that again. That is probably why I have tempered my expectations this time around. I do not want to give myself a glimmer of hope only to be let down again, but suddenly I find myself hopeful…

        Like

  2. Jessica A Bruno (waybeyondfedup)'s avatar
    Jessica A Bruno (waybeyondfedup) permalink
    October 28, 2014 8:51 pm

    Reblogged this on Jessica A Bruno (waybeyondfedup).

    Liked by 1 person

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