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Iowa Caucuses are over, its on to New Hampshire

January 4, 2012

 Just some quick thoughts before I head to work this morning:

 What an interesting night is was in Iowa. It became clear early on that there were three candidates vying for the win–Mitt Romney, Ron Paul, and Rick Santorum–while the other candidates were fighting for fourth place. All throughout the night the top three candidates bounced from first to third place, separated by just one hundred votes or so.

  As the night wore on Ron Paul settled into third place, far ahead of the fourth place winner, Newt Gingrich, but it wasn’t known until early this morning that Mitt Romney edged out Rick Santorum by just eight votes to win the Iowa caucuses.

  Here is what I took out of the caucuses last night. Mitt Romney is probably going to hover around the 25% mark in all the states as long as multiple candidates remain in the race, once candidates begin to drop out it will be interesting to see which candidate benefits the most. Ron Paul had a very good showing last night, although I thought going in that he would come in either first or second and Santorum would finish a strong third.

  Rick Perry sounded like a man who is thinking about dropping out of the race, but he may be going to Texas to come up with a new strategy in his quest for the nomination, and Michele Bachmann should be considering dropping out of the race.

  So now its on to New Hampshire and it will be interesting to see what kind of bump Rick Santorum gets, or if he gets a bump at all. Rick Santorum has basically spent all his time in Iowa and it paid off, but he has remained in single digits in the polls here and it is unlikely he will be able to pull off the same type of surge he did in Iowa. And then there is Jon Huntsman, who has staked everything on New Hampshire, as the wildcard.

  The latest New Hampshire polls show Mitt Romney with a huge lead over Ron Paul, with the other candidates well behind and in single digits. It looks as if Mitt Romney is going to win New Hampshire easily and Ron Paul should expect poll numbers which resemble his finish in Iowa–around 21%, so the battle is going to be for third place between Jon Huntsman, Rick Santorum, and Newt Gingrich. Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry have already given up on New Hampshire and are moving on to South Carolina if they do indeed stay in the race.

  It will be interesting to see if Rick Santorum can ride the momentum from Iowa into New Hampshire and capture third place, or whether Jon Huntsman’s New Hampshire strategy pays off. And then there is always Newt Gingrich, who has promised to turn the heat up on Mitt Romney. This is going to be an interesting week.

24 Comments leave one →
  1. January 4, 2012 8:22 am

    Overall I’m pretty pleased with the outcome of the Iowa caucus. Still not a fan of Mitt, but solid showings from both Ron Paul and Rick Santorum are good signs in my opinion. I would support either Rick or Ron without an reservations and hold my nose to support Romney.


    • January 4, 2012 6:42 pm

      I agree John, last night was a good night for conservatives and hopefully it sent a message to Mitt Romney.


  2. barbara permalink
    January 4, 2012 10:42 am

    I’m so glad Santorum did so well. But seriously, I think we need a better process. For the nation to sit and wait for around 150,000 people to pick the candidates they like best can not possibly be predictive of what the nation as a whole will do on election day. Look at all the time and money spent on this small caucus and how hard the candidates worked.

    There has to be a better way.


    • January 4, 2012 6:44 pm

      I kind of like the fact that two smaller states go first, but then again I am biased because I live in New Hampshire. I think it gives people a chance to mingle with the candidates before the campaigns hit full stride and access is more limited.


  3. bunkerville permalink
    January 4, 2012 10:45 am

    Looks like the polls will tell us who our candidate will be. When you think about those who dropped out, only because their poll numbers dropped, it is stunning. So one could go to the caucus and sign up as a GOP right then in there, then on to New Hampshire where the Independents can vote. then pretty much it will be decided. This is what you call a Democratic election process. A few hundred polled here and there and that is it.


    • lou222 permalink
      January 4, 2012 12:26 pm

      Point well taken, B! Doesn’t seem quite right, does it?


    • January 4, 2012 6:46 pm

      That is my one problem with New Hampshire’s primary; people are allowed to switch parties and vote in the others election, I don’t have a problem with independents being able to vote in whichever primary they chose but I would like to see NH tweek the primary rules.


      • bunkerville permalink
        January 4, 2012 7:15 pm

        I didn’t know the Dems could switch. More knowledge that aggravates me. If it is the GOP who will support and fund the candidate, it would seem the GOP folks should make the pick. A couple of states and it will be over. Glad I am watching closely.


      • January 4, 2012 10:49 pm

        It works the other way around as well, Republicans can do the same to Democrats, not that it makes it any better. The other issue I have with NH voter laws is that we have same day registration.


    • January 4, 2012 8:17 pm

      Bingo Bunker… Elections are a joke now a days, the media and polls set it all up, and know when I say this, it gives me great pain, Mittens IS the chosen one by the RNC/GOP…


      • January 4, 2012 10:51 pm

        It’s a good point Fred, the media creates the polls and then reports the results in an effort to influence the electorate. There is no doubt that the establishment has chosen Mitt.


  4. January 4, 2012 4:21 pm

    I am more interested by what happens in New Hampshire than Iowa… Yankees can sniff out BS better IMO.

    We all know it will be Mittens… the issue is just who will be his VP.

    Looking forward to your coverage.


    • January 4, 2012 6:47 pm

      I like to think we can sniff out BS, but if it is true how come Romney has such a big lead here?


  5. toldya permalink
    January 4, 2012 6:05 pm

    Looks like the “undisclosed, secret vote counting location” worked out for the establishment. Look out, here comes ol’ “Mitt mandate” and some guy who miraculously came up with a ton of votes in a couple days. These results are a stark contrast from the Drudge report caucus vote tally. Something smells funny.


    • January 4, 2012 6:47 pm

      Now that’s an interesting theory I hadn’t thought of, food for thought.


    • lou222 permalink
      January 4, 2012 8:00 pm

      Toldya, that sounds so silly, doesn’t it? A secret location? Brings to mind in Animal House, the “double secret probation”, at least that is how it popped into my mind. My question would be “if it is secret, how do we know they did it right and if it needs to be done over, will we be able to do a recount”? Sorry, that was 2 questions.


      • January 4, 2012 10:55 pm

        At one point during the coverage it was announced that Iowa law doesn’t permit recounts, it is up to the individual candidates to have people there watching the count and questioning anything before the county is certified.


    • January 4, 2012 10:36 pm

      Wasn’t that funny that they had so much trouble with a simple vote? Of course, Obama will have ACORN working for him again, so the Republican candidate will have no choice but to get a little practice of their own. That’s what our elections have become.


      • January 4, 2012 10:55 pm

        And that is a sad state of affairs!


  6. Deb permalink
    January 4, 2012 6:29 pm

    What is Rick Perry waiting for? Santorum needs his airtime in NH along with Bachmann’s! Have fun tonite Steve, try to talk tto him if you can, and I hope you will go in “sweater vest solidarity”!!!;D


    • January 4, 2012 6:49 pm

      Just heard my first Santorum radio spot on the way home. Perry will do nothing in NH because he isn’t coming here, and if he doesn’t do well in SC he is all done.
      I don’t have a sweater or a vest or else I would.


      • lou222 permalink
        January 4, 2012 8:02 pm

        Steve, that would totally blow my image of you!


      • January 4, 2012 10:56 pm

        Hehe Lou, don’t worry, it camo for me.



  1. Iowa Caucus Results » Political Realities

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