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Open thread for Sunday, October 28th: Ohio edition

October 28, 2012

  Here is the open thread for Sunday, October 28th: please feel free to leave links to interesting articles and to discuss whatever issues come up during the course of the day.

  Over the last couple of weeks I have heard many political pundits say that the candidate who won Ohio would win the election but I found this hard to believe so I started fooling around with one of those electoral map aps and it turns out they are right, although Barack Obama seems to have an easier path to victory if Mitt Romney wins Ohio.

  The map I used included Florida as a swing state but gave Pennsylvania to Barack Obama so if Mitt Romney could somehow pull out a win in Pennsylvania it would make his bid for the presidency a whole lot easier. But for the sake of this post let us give Florida to Romney to sort of offset Pennsylvania for Obama. (If Romney doesn’t win Florida it is probably all over anyway.)

    If Barack Obama wins Ohio Mitt Romney would almost have to sweep the states of Iowa, New Hampshire, Colorado, Nevada, North Carolina, Virginia, and Wisconsin. If we give Mitt Romney the states I feel his is most likely to win out of those mentioned above–New Hampshire, Iowa, North Carolina, and I threw in Wisconsin for the Scott Walker factor–Mitt Romney loses the election by a margin of 270-268, which means Barack Obama can lose Ohio and would only need to capture Nevada and Colorado.

  It is true that things are trending nicely for Mitt Romney right now both nationally and in the individual states but the race remains extremely tight in Ohio and I do believe that state is going to decide who our next president is. This is concerning when you read stories about truck loads of Somali voters being driven to the polling places and helped through the ballots with the help of Democrat interpreters with no Republican interpreters there to help.

  There is one fascinating scenario where Barack Obama wins Ohio, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin and we end up with the highly unlikely scenario of a 269-269 tie with the election being thrown into the new Congress in January to pick our next president and vice president. If the Republicans hold onto the House Mitt Romney would become the president, but if the Democrats held onto the Senate we could actually see Joe Biden remain as vice president.

  I have been very confident since the first debate that Mitt Romney was going to defeat Barack Obama but Ohio is very worrisome and I have the gut feeling Barack Obama is going to win that critical state and manage to hold on and win reelection. We must now begin preparing ourselves for the fight for the future of our country over the next four years–or as long as the internet remains open.

  On that depressing note, on to the musical selection: Many of you have probably figured out what today’s musical selection is, and you would be partly right. I don’t particularly care for The Pretenders or for this song but I have decided to sacrifice for the common good (I better get used to it now) so I give you a cover version of the song ‘My City Was Gone (Ohio)’ that I managed to find on You Tube.

24 Comments leave one →
  1. October 28, 2012 9:09 am

    ” If we give Mitt Romney the states I feel his is most likely to win out of those mentioned above–New Hampshire, Iowa, North Carolina, and I threw in Wisconsin for the Scott Walker factor–Mitt Romney loses the election by a margin of 270-268,”

    What about Virginia?

    I hate to admit it, but I think you are right, Steve, that Romey has a tough row to hoe. Voter turn-out of each party will be the key, in my opinion.


    • lou222 permalink
      October 28, 2012 10:37 am

      Jim, he can’t let his guard down, that is for sure. I hope he has equally vicious staffers is his campaign, because we know what Obama has. The popular vote should count, but with just the electoral vote counting, guess we will see how manipulated it will be. We can expect about anything to happen now, I don’t think anything is out of the question when it comes to Obama wanting to win. Will the Republicans put up a good fight, who knows.


      • October 28, 2012 6:49 pm

        Romney has to fight as hard as he can right up until the polls close for every vote he can get, if Republicans aren’t revved up to vote after Benghazi because they aren’t thrilled with Romney then shame on them for letting America down. If Obama wins we will get what we deserve and it isn’t going to be pretty.


    • October 28, 2012 6:47 pm

      I am pretty sure I gave Romney Virginia too but I forgot to put that state in my post, I’ll have to go back and check. It is a tough road for Romney but he can do it, but it sure would be quite a bit easier if he took Ohio. The latest poll shows him tied with Obama so it isn’t over yet.


  2. lou222 permalink
    October 28, 2012 10:34 am

    I saw this article and thought, it would give the media something else to focus on instead of Benghazi, right? I mean a storm/hurricane needs a president in control of the disaster and on top of things. He is just the man to step in and take control and push anything else out of the news. He should be doing this as well, but I have a suspicion that it will take center stage. Can’t let this news go to waste.


    • October 28, 2012 6:51 pm

      I mentioned to a friend that the MSM would be focused on the hurricane and use that as a distraction to avoid talking about Libya the entire week before the election, I hadn’t thought about Obama using this to show leadership but that is a great point. He will use this storm for political advantage if he can and I hope the American people do not fall for this.


  3. MTBirkmire permalink
    October 28, 2012 5:59 pm

    WOW, you guys back east are going thru HELL, I’m praying for all of you. my brother is at the coastline of north carolina. I’ll be praying and watching the news real close…stay safe.


    • October 28, 2012 6:52 pm

      Thanks for the well wishes, we are out of the direct path but we could lose power because of the winds we are expecting. I hope and pray that we don’t simply because I don’t want to be off line during the most critical week leading into the election.


  4. lou222 permalink
    October 28, 2012 6:01 pm

    I saw this over at about an Admiral and a General being taken out of their positions and replaced because they refused to “stand down”. They wanted the phone numbers to go viral and to have people call to start demanding they cover this. Here they are:

    NBC Phone (212) -664-3720

    ABC Phone (212) 456-7777

    CBS Phone (212) – 975-4321

    CNN Phone (404) 827-1500

    AFRICOM General Ham made to step down and replaced by Rodriguez within minutes of refusing to “Stand Down” NOT to help fellow Americans

    Admiral Gouette carrier strike commander, replaced by Shoemaker… for refusing to Stand Down and NOT Help Americans in need

    We are the ROLLING THUNDER…let’s make ourselves heard…melt the phones in Washington DC too….Those who died for us deserve our voice.


    • October 28, 2012 6:53 pm

      I had heard an admiral was removed because of an ongoing investigation but I hadn’t heard what that investigation was about, thanks for the info!


      • cmblake6 permalink
        October 28, 2012 7:01 pm

        I have no doubt that was exactly it.


      • cmblake6 permalink
        October 28, 2012 7:02 pm

        The military needs to remember their OATH, don’t you think?


      • October 28, 2012 7:16 pm

        When it was first leaked that the CIA asked for help three times and it was denied the story made it known the leaker wasn’t in the State Department which meant it was likely a leaker in the military. We might now know who the leaker is.


  5. cmblake6 permalink
    October 28, 2012 6:57 pm

    I really hate to say what I think the general response will be to an Ovomit win.


    • October 28, 2012 7:16 pm

      So do I!


      • cmblake6 permalink
        October 28, 2012 7:25 pm

        On the other hand, it would go ahead and get started. I think the military would either join in our side, or sit back with popcorn.


      • October 28, 2012 8:04 pm

        I think you are right about that, in fact I am counting on it if the time comes.


  6. October 28, 2012 7:43 pm

    I believe there’s about a 1.5 – 2.0% liberal bias in the polls. The only proof will be on election day, but that’s my gut feel. With that in mind, here’s my opinion on the battleground states currently deemed so by RealClearPolitics:

    Colorado: Tied (in the bank for Romney)
    Florida: Romney +1.8% (in the bank for Romney)
    Iowa: Obama +2.3% (up for grabs)
    Michigan: Obama +4.0% (probably will go Obama)
    N. Carolina: Romney +3.8% (in the bank for Romney)
    Nevada: Obama +2.4% (probably will go Obama)
    New Hampshire: Obama +2.0% (up for grabs)
    Ohio: Obama +1.9% (up for grabs)
    Pennsylvania: Obama +4.7% (probably will go Obama)
    Virginia: Tied (in the bank for Romney)
    Wisconsin: Obama +2.3% (up for grabs)

    If you put these results into the “build your own map” at RCP ( here’s what you get:
    Romney: 257
    Obama: 243
    tossups: 38 (Iowa=6, New Hampshire=4, Wisconsin=10, Ohio=18)

    If I’m right, then Romney either needs to win Ohio, or win Wisconsin and one of the others (Iowa or New Hampshire).

    Here’s an article by Scott Rasmussen entitled “Wisconsin May Be the New Ohio.”

    – Jeff


    • October 28, 2012 8:12 pm

      Very interesting and I agree that there is a liberal skew to the polls which may make this very interesting on election day. Thanks for the link to the article, I am going to check it out right now.


    • October 28, 2012 11:42 pm

      New Hampshire is NOT up for grabs. It is scewed bigtime by 1 poll from UNH. Discount that obamination and Romney is in great shape in RCP poll and in the state. Nh is his.


      • lou222 permalink
        October 29, 2012 7:05 am

        We know what they have been doing with the polls,Joe. That people believe them is the problem. I hope you are right, he needs every state he can get at this point.


  7. lou222 permalink
    October 28, 2012 9:13 pm

    The latest Bill Whittle, called “Bewitched”. If it was posted early, forgive me, I have been out of the loop for a few weeks.


  8. lou222 permalink
    October 31, 2012 8:21 pm

    This is a must read on FEMA talking about postponing the election !!!!!


    • lou222 permalink
      October 31, 2012 8:23 pm

      The last 2 paragraphs are the most disturbing!


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