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Will Paul Ryan be forced to pull the Obamacare replacement bill from the floor?

March 21, 2017

 The vote on the Obamacare replacement legislation (I have decided to stop calling it the Obamacare repeal legislation even though “replacement” does not seem to be the proper term either) is scheduled for Thursday but will that vote actually take place?

  We know the Democrats are going to vote against the legislation en masse so the only question is how is the Republican vote going to break down? Paul Ryan insists he has enough votes to pass the bill, however Rand Paul disagrees and today he said there are at least 35 Republican who will vote against it. He also claims that Paul Ryan will be forced to pull the bill, here is more: 

I think there’s easily 35 no votes right now so unless something happens in the next 24 hours, I would predict they pull the bill and start over. I think if conservatives stick together, they will have earned a seat at the table where real negotiation to make this bill an acceptable bill will happen. But it’s interesting what conservatives are doing to change the debate. We went from keeping the Obamacare taxes for a year—hundreds of billions of dollars—but they’re coming towards us because we’re standing firm. So we have to stick together, and if we do stick together there will be a real negotiation on this. The main goal I have is not to pass something that does not fix the situation. If a year from now, insurance rates and premiums are still going through the roof and it’s now a Republican plan it will be a disservice to the president and all of us if we pass something that doesn’t work.

  Rand PaulWith the changes to the bill which came earlier this week Rand Paul is claiming if the conservatives stick together they will be able to get what they want–which is a full repeal and this will mean they will have to start over.

  Both sides are jockeying for position here but who will ultimately be victorious is too hard to predict at this time. I find it hard to believe Paul Ryan would risk the embarrassment of scheduling a vote only to pull the legislation so I am inclined to believe he does have the votes. However he could be using this as an opportunity to shame the conservatives into voting for legislation they do not approve of by portraying them as not going through with a campaign promise.

  Of course this bill is not a full repeal so Rand Paul can make the same claim against Paul Ryan and the moderate Republicans. Rand Paul could be making this claim to pressure the moderates into making more concessions until the conservatives decide they have gotten all they can get from Paul Ryan and the moderates.

  How this is going to play out is anyone’s guess right now but if I had to put money on it I would bet the bill will pass the House but the Senate is another story.

malo periculosam libertatem quam quietum servitium

14 Comments leave one →
  1. March 21, 2017 8:09 pm

    My hunch is after they get done with it in reconciliation, we won’t recognize it. Anyone’s guess as to what it will turn out to be, but it will cost Trump dearly IMO.

    Liked by 1 person

    • March 21, 2017 8:11 pm

      Reconciliation will be interesting but if they get a bill that Trump can sign I think it will be a win for him…depending on what the final bill is.

      Liked by 1 person

    • March 21, 2017 10:00 pm

      Would there necessarily be a reconciliation process? The rules for budget reconciliation are rather strict. That is the reason why Ryan includes $75 billion that the Senate has to allocate.

      Liked by 1 person

      • March 21, 2017 10:49 pm

        Unless the Senate agrees entirely with the House bill it would have to go to committee for reconcillliation as I understand it.

        Liked by 1 person

      • March 22, 2017 5:38 am

        I understand it the same was as Bunkerville; if the Senate makes changes to the bill and then passes it there would be reconciliation with the House to pass the changes.


  2. March 21, 2017 9:59 pm

    I have the impression that Rand is Trump’s point person on this repeal and replace bill. Rand seems responsible for getting enough of the Freedom cacus to side with an amended bill. The first hurdle was the Budget Committee. If the bill was going to get killed here was the place to do it, but it passed.

    Yes I agree that some bill will pass the House. The Senate is a whole other question. Which group will dominate the debate – Rand, Mike and Ted or Mitch and his leadership team. Then there are several wild cards. In the end Is there enough pork to go around?

    Remember to the victor belong the spoils. Next up is the CR for the remainder of the FY 17 budget.

    Liked by 2 people

  3. Brittius permalink
    March 22, 2017 4:59 am

    Reblogged this on Brittius.

    Liked by 1 person

  4. March 22, 2017 11:31 am

    Time to RID those who do the bidding of the Dooms Day Globalist. (The Brave New World analogy.) Just as cancer is cut out – so must they.

    Liked by 1 person

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