Ron Paul Passes Mike Huckabee in the Latest New Hampshire Poll
In the Republican Primary, the 7NEWS/Suffolk University poll shows Romney (30 percent) leading McCain (27 percent), followed by Rudy Giuliani (10 percent), Ron Paul (9 percent), Mike Huckabee (7 percent), Fred Thompson (2 percent) and Duncan Hunter (1 percent). Twelve percent were undecided. Paul is now polling ahead of Iowa Caucus winner Huckabee.
The polls in New Hampshire ave very fluid right now. Nothing is set in stone. This morning I posted the latest results of a CNN/WMUR poll that had McCain leading Romney by six points. This is a channel seven poll out of Boston. Not only does it show the good news of Romney ahead of McCain, it also shows Ron Paul moving past Mike Huckabee.
Mike Huckabee does not have a chance of winning here, however if McCain does win I think it will keep Huckabee alive in the race because I don’t think McCain has a chance to win the nomination. A McCain victory would open the field back up to everyone, with the possible exception of Romney, who I think would be just about done. He has staked so much on these early states.
What is interesting is that Ron Paul has moved ahead of Huckabee. I think Ron Paul has a real chance at surprising some people around the country by his showing in New Hampshire. Does Ron Paul have a real chance of winning here? NO! But I think he is going to come in a strong third. When I make my predictions here I was going to put Paul in second place, that was before the McCain surge. I think it is pretty evident that Romney and McCain will finish one, two, but the third spot is anyone’s guess. Paul does appear to have a strong following here, and his following appears to be the younger voters. Because the younger voters are more apt to have cell phones as their primary phones and cell phones are not subject to the poll calls, I think his numbers don’t accurately reflect what his final numbers will be. I think that whoever finishes fourth, it will be a distant fourth.
I could be way off base here, but my surprise in the primary will be a stronger than expected vote for Ron Paul.
New Hampshire voters appear able to see through Mike Huckabee, now we need them to see through John McCain.
Latest New Hampshire Primary Poll (01/06)
There are actually two new polls out right now, so here are the results of both.
For the Democrats:
Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are neck and neck, according to Research 2000, with the Illinois senator at 34 percent and the former first lady one point behind. Further back were John Edwards with 23 percent, Bill Richardson at 4 percent and Dennis Kucinich with 3.
And:
Tonight’s CNN/WMUR poll shows Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama in a dead heat with 33 percent. John Edwards has 20 percent, Bill Richardson 4 and Dennis Kucinich 2.
Both polls are basically the same. Independent votes who are planning on voting in the Democrat primary are leaning towards Obama. This could be a big development for him. Whoever wins the Independent vote will probably win the primary.
There was also another poll released, The American Research Group’s poll had Obama with a twelve point lead, and a recent Rasmussen poll had Obama with a 10 point lead. I don’t believe that is the case. I believe the CNN/WMUR poll is probably the most accurate.
For Republicans:
John McCain with a six-point lead over Mitt Romney, 33 percent to 27 percent. Trailing well behind are Rudy Giuliani with 14, Mike Huckabee at 11, Ron Paul with 9, and both Fred Thompson and Duncan Hunter at 1.
And:
Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., gained four percentage points in the latest poll, and now leads his closest rival, former Gov. Mitt Romney, 39 to 25 percent. Huckabee was third, with 14 percent of likely Republican primary voters
Again, here I would go with the first poll, the second one doesn’t reflect the numbers we have seen over the last few months. However, Independent voters who plan on voting in the Republican primary are moving towards McCain, so the second poll could be accurate if it has more Independent voters in it.
With just two days to the primary it looks as if anything can happen.
New Hampshire Republicans: Get Up, Get out, and GO VOTE
Cross posted at Grizzly Groundswell
The time is nigh New Hampshire Republicans. With Obama and Huckabee winning the Iowa caucus we face the prospect of two liberals running against each other in the general election. While we as Republicans can’t do anything about one of them, we can do something about the other.
There are only two viable candidates with a chance to win in New Hampshire, one is John McCain and the other, Mitt Romney. Consider your vote well, New Hampshire Republicans. We need to stop Mike Huckabee.
John McCain is for amnesty for illegal aliens, don’t listen to his path to citizenship bullshit. He begrudgingly agreed to build a fence with this statement,“By the way, I think the fence is least effective. But I’ll build the goddamned fence if they want it.” Do you think that with a Democrat congress and the reimplementation of his immigration policy, he will still support that “goddamned fence”? I don’t think so.
He is against the Bush tax cuts that stimulated the economy. He partnered with Fiengold to restrict free speech thirty days before an election. The time when free speech may be of the utmost importance. John McCain is not the answer. John McCain will continue President Bush’s horrible immigration plan, hell he authored it with Ted Kennedy. Whenever there has been vital legislation to be voted on, he sides with the Democrats. Remember the gang of fourteen? The group of senators that held up President Bush’s conservative judicial nominations. That was John McCain.
So there is only one viable candidate to vote for in New Hampshire and defeat the liberal, smooth talking, slick Mike Huckabee. MITT ROMNEY.
This is a call to all Republican voters in New Hampshire. GET UP, GET UP, AND GO VOTE. Don’t sit home as you did in 2006, you see the damage you have done to this state. You have seen the non results of the horrid Democrat controlled congress. Do not make the same mistake again. Learn from the past, rise up and do not let this country slip into control of the liberals. We need to be heard, it is time to vote. It is time to end the Huckabee surge once and for all. Do not let this liberal gain momentum. Do not give John McCain any momentum. We do not need his immigration policy, we do not need his tax policy. We need Mitt Romney!
Mitt Romney will build the wall, he will make the tax cuts permanent, he will cut spending, he will put America first.
New Hampshire Republicans, the choice is yours. Make it wisely.
Hillary Clinton Booed in New Hampshire
Cross posted on Grizzly Groundswell
The wheels seem to be falling off of the Hillary Clinton campaign bandwagon, and it doesn’t seem to be getting any better now that she has rolled in to New Hampshire. At a Democrat Party dinner she was booed twice, both for seemingly innocent enough comments. The crowd at this dinner was filled with Obama supporters and Mrs. Clinton was speaking before Obama. Evidently the Obama supporters were tired of waiting for Obama and when Hillary once again stole one of Obama’s campaign themes, the crowd was not happy.
Hillary was twice booed. The first time was when she said she has always and will continue to work for “change for you.”
Change is a theme that Obama has been using, and lately Hillary has been trying to glom onto that as well. Hillary’s new New Hampshire ad states that change can only come with experience, and it is when she was touting her experience she got booed the second time.
“The there are two big questions for voters in New Hampshire. One is: who will be ready to lead from day one?
The boos reigned down. She has been trying to sit on both sides of the fence here. Hillary has been trying to lay claim to change and experience, and she thinks New Hampshire voters are stupid enough to fall for it. After the way the 2006 elections went in New Hampshire, I have to say, she may be right. But the bloom appears to be off her rose. Her campaign limps into New Hampshire, and at a dinner for ALL the Democrat candidates she is greeted with resounding boos. Her campaign is about to get nasty. Her talking points appear to be just that to the voters now, with no substance to back them up.
New Hampshire voters are wising up to her, but Obama would possibly be harder to beat in a general election, so this comes as mixed news indeed. Three days to go. This is getting good.
Oh, and I’m sorry I used the words “Hillary” and “lay” in the same sentence, I will try to never again do that.
Top Hillary Clinton Fundraiser Headed to Jail
You all remember the Norman Hsu story, don’t you? If you need a refresher you can check this and this out. Today Norman Hsu was sentenced to 3 years in jail.
Disgraced political donor Norman Hsu was sentenced Friday to three years in prison after a judge rejected his bid to throw out a 16-year- old fraud conviction.
Just another example of the type of people the Clinton’s associate with. Nothing will be said about this in the mainstream media, and that what is so frustrating about this. If this was a major Republican candidate the media would use this to destroy him, but Hillary is royalty to the media and the story will be buried.
The media is too busy trying to wrap their arms around the fact that over 70% of Democrats voted against Hillary in the Iowa caucus. They anointed her the front-runner, last night was supposed to be a coronation, but the media is losing the pull they once had and so they failed. Just as they are failing in their obligation to report the Norman Hsu scandal.
Hillary Clinton’s campaign is in disarray, her donors are headed to jail, and Bill is proving to be a drain on her campaign.
This is getting fun.
My Take on the Iowa Caucus
As I write this Obama has won the Iowa caucus, Edwards is in second, and Hillary is in third. Hillary is projected to still take second. Huckabee has won, with Mitt in second, Thompson in third, followed by McCain.
I think Hillary’s biggest problem was that she was running on her experience, and yet running on being the candidate of change at the same time. She uses her experience of 35 years in political life and being part of the political machine as a reason to vote for her. Yet she says she will bring change. This is typical Clintonese, playing sitting on both sides of the fence. Clearly Obama is the candidate voters thought would bring change. He has not been part of the political insiders for very long and as such was able to portray himself as the agent of change. I also think there was a large anti-Hillary vote as voters begin to wonder if she is electable. I don’t think she is.
I think Hillary is in trouble, I think Obama is going to ride this victory all the way to the nomination.
As for the Republicans, I think that Huckabee is a one hit wonder. This victory will probably give him a bump in New Hampshire, but not much. He may have a shot at South Carolina, but that is about it. This really does hurt Mitt, as McCain is right on his heels and some polls have him ahead. I think that Mitt needs a strong showing in New Hampshire or voters will start to look elsewhere.
As I write this, Thompson has had a better showing than I thought he would in Iowa, this could position him well after New Hampshire. He won’t do anything in New Hampshire, but if he stays in the race (there are rumors he will drop out), he could make a move after New Hampshire.
Now the race is on, this is going to get interesting in the coming weeks.
Democrats have been shifting their excuse for surrendering the Iraq war from, we can’t win to Iraq isn’t ever going to make political gains in an effort to legitimize the withdrawal of American troops before victory is achieved. Well now according to this article the Democrat’s new strategy may be ready to backfire on them also.
General David Petraeus, commander of U.S. forces in Iraq, is crediting efforts by the Syrian government, along with stepped-up counter-terrorism activities in other Arab states, with cutting the flow of al Qaeda terrorists entering Iraq.
This change in Syrian behavior has occurred at a time when the Iraqi government and the regime of Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad have been increasing their diplomatic and economic engagement, and when relations between Jordan and Syria also have been warming.
This is more bad news for the Democrats. Iraq is making international political process, so now the Democrats are going to have to find another angle . They thought that they had the president outflanked several times when it came to ending the war, but each time they ended up being undone by the progress being obtained in the war.
“We said from the beginning that the security and economic cooperation between Syria and Iraq could not be achieved if there was not a political will and if no political understanding was reached as well as acceptance of the new reality in Iraq and dealing with it in a realistic way,” said Zebari. “We noticed that there is a right movement in this direction. A greater understanding between the security services was achieved from the series of visits made by Iraqi leaders and Syrian officials and as a result of the bilateral efforts and also the neighboring countries’ conferences.”
The question remains, and we all know the answer, why isn’t this being reported? Here in New Hampshire the war has taken a back seat on the campaign ads. Only Bill Richardson is currently running an ad focused on ending the war. Democrats must now realize that the war is a losing effort for them. They seem to be trying to hide from it, pretending it doesn’t exist.
To tell you the truth, I don’t know why anybody would vote for a Democrat after watching all the ads that have run in New Hampshire. They are so negative in regards to America, they put down America and then tell us they are the only ones who can make America great again. I am getting tired of listening to them. They promise to bring America back together while conveniently forgetting that they are the ones who tore America apart and turned public opinion against the war.
Once they realized that Americans didn’t like being told we couldn’t win the war, they changed their argument. They started trying to say Iraq couldn’t govern itself. It’s always can’t, can’t can’t with these people. That way they could focus on ending the war without saying that America couldn’t win. I guess that almost sounds like a good strategy. Unfortunately, the Iraqi’s are not cooperating with them as they are now making political and diplomatic gains.
Democrats must be cursing their luck.
The state house got back to buisness yesterday, and on the first day they passed a bill that would create a non-driver’s ID card.
The House also passed a bill establishing a non-driver photo ID card for homeless residents and others, such as recently released inmates. The Department of Safety would issue the cards. The House committee recommending the bill said it will help those without drivers licenses to find jobs.
Okay, I will accept that. What could possibly be wrong with creating this new non-driver’s ID card? I’ll even accept the premise that New Hampshire streets are filled with all these homeless people and ex-cons that need our help, because that isn’t what pisses me off about this bill. But before I get to what irritates the hell out of me. let me ask one question. Who pays for these ID cards to be issued? Surely the homeless people aren’t going to pay. Here is the part that annoys me:
but the House killed a move to require citizenship information on drivers licenses and non-driver IDs.
Come one come all! New Hampshire is about to issue photo ID cards for all. You don’t need to be a citizen. Wonderful. Now I am outraged. But did you notice the kicker in that last statement, it also includes no citizenship proof to obtain driver’s licenses. When the hell are these people going to learn? How can they believe this is a good idea? This little information was buried at the end of this article. The bill now goes to the senate, and then to the governor’s desk.
I am to dumbfouded to write any more right now. I am going to work now, but at least I know while I am there, the bums will be able to buy their wine and show an ID card while I am out earning a living.
GOVERNOR LYNCH I DEMAND YOU STOP THIS.
Latest New Hampshire Primary Poll (01/02)
Here is the results from the latest New Hampshire poll, just one week away from the primary.
McCain tops Romney 31 to 25 percent, Rudy Giuliani polled third at 14 percent; Mike Huckabee, 9 percent; Ron Paul, 6 percent; Fred Thompson, 2 percent; Alan Keyes, 1 percent
McCain’s surge continues, as he now holds a lead in New Hampshire for the first time. Some of his support seems to be coming from Rudy, but I believe it is mostly undecided voters who are starting to break for McCain.
For the Democrats:
Clinton, 36 percent; Obama, 22 percent; Edwards, 14 percent; Bill Richardson, 7 percent; Joe Biden, 4 percent; Dennis Kucinich, 3 percent; Chris Dodd, 1 percent.
The undecided Democrat voters seem to also be moving towards Hillary as she once again starts to pull ahead of Obama.
Starting this week there will be a daily tracking poll, which will show a two day rolling average. I will try to bring current poll numbers using this poll when possible.
To read more about this latest poll, see this article that was used for this post.
Wake Up America Endorses Mitt Romney
Cross posted on Grizzly Groundswell
I have finally made my choice for president and will now make my endorsement for president, for whatever it’s worth. Hey, newspapers still endorse candidates, and they no longer carry the weight they used to, so why not try my hand at endorsing a candidate?
This is a crucial election for our country’s future. I have been undecided about who I would vote for until very recently. There is much at stake in 2008, from the Democrats trying vigorously to turn our government into a socialist form of government, all the way to the Democrats ignoring the threat of Islamo-fascism even in the wake of September 11th. It is for these reasons that I have remained undecided for so long. But not any more. With just over a week to go to the New Hampshire primary, I have made my choice.
I had narrowed the field down to three candidates; Mitt Romney, Tom Tancredo, and Duncan Hunter.
Tom Tancredo made the choice slightly easier once he dropped out. My choices then were narrowed down to two, naturally. But then Tom Tancredo endorsed Mitt Romney, and that is when I made my final decision.
Tancredo identified former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and Arizona Sen. John McCain as two Republican candidates whose records indicate they wouldn’t be tough enough on immigration.
He said Romney has a proven record of opposing illegal immigration while governor of Massachusetts, ending driver’s licenses and in-state tuition for illegal immigrants.
“On the other hand, you talk about what’s happened in Arkansas, it’s a totally different situation, and certainly John McCain has built a career in Congress being a supporter of illegal immigration and amnesty,” Tancredo said.
Tancredo said he and Romney met Thursday for more than an hour and he left the meeting convinced that the former Massachusetts governor would do what’s necessary to fight illegal immigration.
“He is the best hope for our cause,” Tancredo said.
Immigration, the war on terror and national defence are the biggest issues to me. Actually they are all one issue in my book, they are woven together to form one big issue. How can we be fighting the war on terror abroad, and yet leave our borders wide open to people who have already successfully made it over here? This is the reason that I was looking at Hunter and Tancredo in the first place, once Tancredo made his decision, I made mine. I almost feel as though Tancredo was only in the race to shed light on immigration and once he did that he decided he could bow out.
The final decision came down to electability. Once I was down to two candidates, that became the deciding factor. Much like a Mike Huckabee nomination would secure a Democrat president in the general election, so to would a Duncan Hunter nomination. So in the end, I had to go with Mitt, even though I do like Duncan Hunter.
I do believe that Mitt Romney would run rings around Hillary Clinton in the debates, and hopefully expose her. Although she has been exposed before and the voters don’t seem to care.
Mitt Romney will be a fiscal conservative, he will cut government programs before he would increase spending, and that is another reason I am going to vote for him. As a successful businessman, he understands the importance of limiting spending and maximizing profits. I believe he will use this knowledge to cut spending, make the Bush tax cuts permanent and downsize the federal government.
In a time when family values are being eroded, and parental rights are being threatened, Mitt Romney talks about strong family values, but he does more than talk, he lives by strong family values.
I believe that Mitt Romney will be a strong leader in a time where leadership will be desperately needed.
